2026 generic congressional ballot
Our own average of public polls, built from the VoteHub polling data with a method we publish. Dots are individual polls.
47.2%
Democrats, our average
range 46.5 to 47.8
41.8%
Republicans, our average
range 41.2 to 42.4
Democrats +5.4
Gap
range 4.7 to 6.0 points
445
Polls in the average
half-life 56 days
Average as of Oct 28, 2026, from polls that ended through Oct 4, 2026. VoteHub data fetched Oct 28, 2026, 05:48 UTC.
The average over time
Lines are our weekly average using only polls that had ended by each date. The shaded band is the range for Democrats. Dots are individual polls: circles for Democrats, crosses for Republicans.
- Democrats
- Republicans
This is an average of public polls, not a forecast, and the range does not include errors that polls share. Poll data: VoteHub, CC BY 4.0 (license). Averages are our own calculation from that data.
The polls
| Source | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Pew Research Center | 3,917 | Registered voters | 44.0% | 36.0% | +8.0 | 3.25% | Poll |
| Oct 2, 2026 | YouGov - CBS News | 1,572 | Likely voters | 54.0% | 45.0% | +9.0 | 3.30% | Poll |
| Sep 28, 2026 | HarrisX/Harris | Not stated | Likely voters | 51.0% | 49.0% | +2.0 | 1.59% | Poll |
| Sep 22, 2026 | The Argument/Verasight | Not stated | Likely voters | 55.0% | 45.0% | +10.0 | 1.47% | Poll |
| Sep 8, 2026 | YouGov | 1,015 | Likely voters | 49.0% | 38.0% | +11.0 | 1.97% | Poll |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Morning Consult | 2,203 | Registered voters | 46.0% | 42.0% | +4.0 | 2.30% | Poll |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Ipsos | 951 | Registered voters | 41.0% | 35.0% | +6.0 | 1.35% | Poll |
| Aug 24, 2026 | IpsosNot counted: same survey, better population used | 1,215 | All adults | 35.0% | 29.0% | +6.0 | 0 | Poll |
| Aug 24, 2026 | YouGov | 1,377 | Registered voters | 46.0% | 40.0% | +6.0 | 1.62% | Poll |
| Aug 24, 2026 | YouGovNot counted: same survey, better population used | 1,534 | All adults | 37.0% | 31.0% | +6.0 | 0 | Poll |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Noble Predictive Insights | 2,533 | Registered voters | 47.0% | 42.0% | +5.0 | 1.77% | Poll |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Morning Consult | 24,000 | Registered voters | 46.0% | 43.0% | +3.0 | 1.15% | Poll |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Focaldata | 1,795 | Registered voters | 50.0% | 43.0% | +7.0 | 0.94% | Poll |
| Jun 29, 2026 | YouGov | 1,426 | Registered voters | 45.0% | 42.0% | +3.0 | 0.83% | Poll |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Big Data Poll | 2,604 | Likely voters | 50.2% | 41.0% | +9.2 | 1.14% | Poll |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Echelon Insights | 1,003 | Likely voters | 51.0% | 45.0% | +6.0 | 0.75% | Poll |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Ipsos | 978 | Registered voters | 41.0% | 36.0% | +5.0 | 0.63% | Poll |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Morning Consult | Not stated | Registered voters | 46.0% | 42.0% | +4.0 | 0.40% | Poll |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Verasight | 1,896 | Registered voters | 50.0% | 43.0% | +7.0 | 0.87% | Poll |
| Jun 22, 2026 | YouGov | 1,517 | Registered voters | 45.0% | 43.0% | +2.0 | 0.78% | Poll |
| Jun 22, 2026 | YouGovNot counted: same survey, better population used | 1,679 | All adults | 38.0% | 35.0% | +3.0 | 0 | Poll |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Quantus Insights | 1,000 | Likely voters | 47.0% | 43.0% | +4.0 | 0.70% | Poll |
| Jun 16, 2026 | The Bullfinch Group | 1,000 | Registered voters | 44.0% | 36.0% | +8.0 | 0.59% | Poll |
| Jun 16, 2026 | The Bullfinch GroupNot counted: same survey, better population used | 1,200 | All adults | 43.0% | 34.0% | +9.0 | 0 | Poll |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Ipsos | 1,195 | Registered voters | 41.0% | 38.0% | +3.0 | 0.64% | Poll |
What went in
- 547 polls received from the VoteHub API. 547 passed our checks. 0 were set aside because their answers were malformed. 102 more are one survey reported for several populations, so only the best population is counted.
- Fetched Oct 28, 2026, 05:48 UTC. How the average works.